Welcome to the Fleetwood/Matt THURSDEE SPECIAL, a poorly-named extension of the Fleetwood / Matt NFL Picks column.
Fleetwood Brown and Matt Ederer are two comedians, sports players, sports watchers and big ol’ Canadian Hosers (my lawyers are instructing me to shoehorn the word “eh” into this sentence) who love to watch (and in Fleets case play) (and in Matt’s case, bet on) some professional (American) football (games).
We have decided to split our weekly column into two sections: Every Thursday morning, we’ll give you our pick for the Thursday Night Football game. Then, every Saturday afternoon/night, we’ll be back with our picks for the Sunday/Monday NFL slate.
Before you write this off as simply “two idiots from Canada making fun of football” — which to be fair, it 1000% is — please know that we are both absolutely fucking cranking it this so far year and I refuse to pretend to be humble for one second longer. Our Records:
Matt – 22-9-1
Fleet – 19-12-1
Lol just kidding about that humble thing, we were never humble. Nah but seriously, while I am certain this will flip eventually, we have made some solid picks and actual legal monies gambling on this season this year. Thus we are kings of the world, at least until this inevitably comes crashing down this Sunday.
ON TO THE THURSDEE FUTBOL
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U: 39.5 pts // Line – TEN -1.5
Fleet – Who’s to say which overall record is better at this point? What matters most when making picks is going against the grain.
So once again I’ll take the Minshew 2.0-based offense, and the team that has their best player wanting out. If he really wants to win, now is the time to show that, go Jalen! If the Jags can go pro, look out.
In conclusion, the Browns were victorious last week. Nothing else matters.
Fleet’s Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars
Matt – Before I throw my pick at ya, check out a couple betting angles that I like in this game:
- Tennessee has dusted the Jags over last two years, covering the spread in all four games and outscoring the Jags 91-41. The safest assumption is that they will be leading most of this week, which favours the RB position. Titans running back Derrick Henry popped off for 238 yards in their last game v Jacksonville. The Jags have allowed more than 80 yards to an opposing running back in back-to-back weeks. D Henry has already rushed for 84 and 82 yards against the Browns and Colts, respectively. Give me Derrick Henry over any number of rush yards you can realistically throw at me (Popular betting site Bodog.eu has Henry’s over/under total listed at 74.5 yards, which feels like free money to me. Pound the over there).
- I like the under here, but I wouldn’t bet it. The under has hit in seven of the last nine meetings between the two teams in Jacksonville, but the over has hit in five of the last seven overall. You can easily talk yourself into either side of that stat. To me, this is a backup QB (Minshew) going against a college QB (Mariota) on a short week of rest for both teams. Both teams have above average defenses and little-to-no offense. I just can’t shake that. Other than Derrick Henry, I don’t like a single offensive player in this game. Take the under 39.5 total points. Just, not with my money.
Here is my main argument about this game though, something I also cannot shake: Jacksonville is fucking imploding. One of these teams are a football team, one of these teams is a human soap opera ready to combust at any moment. Consider this video from last week’s Houston / Jacksonville game. Focus on the bench when coach Doug Marrone jumps up to shout at Jaylen Ramsay at the 0:14 mark (specifically #25, DJ Hayden)
The players immediately jumped up and literally told their coach to fuck off, and get out. I have never seen that specific thing before in my years of watching football. I have seen coaches and players get into it on the sideline, yes. I have not ever seen a coach say something so ignorant to a player that *the other players* IMMEDIATELY jump out of their seats and tell him to back off.
This highly scientific testing method leads me to believe that the Jags are going to get absolutely cranked tonight. Football is a tough, violent game, and I am worried the Jags won’t be ready to go to war for this guy. Not the most advanced betting method to be fair, and maybe Jacksonville rallies around hatred for their coach. More likely though, is that we have a second Miami Dolphins situation on our hands – IE every player of note wanting out of town. If Jaylen Ramsay ends up getting traded, this Jags season could go from “salvageable” to “garbage barge on fire” awfully fast.
What is going on in Florida?
Matt’s Pick – Tennessee Titans